Honeywell's much anticipated 17th annual Business Aviation Outlook report was issued yesterday, and it is forecasting that some 17,000 new business aircraft will be delivered over the next ten years resulting in sales of $ 300 billion dollars.
This report anticipates the fifth year of expansion in the business aircraft industry, and described an approximately 22% year over year increase in sales both in terms of dollars and units sold. Honeywell expects business jet deliveries to increase from 1,020 in 2007 to nearly 1,200, marking a 15% increase despite the expected recession. Also forecast are business jet sales of between 1,300 and 1,400 aircraft in 2009 depending on how quickly new aircraft production can be ramped up.
I wonder how accurate these numbers are in view of the fact that recent FAA and Euro Control data shows reduced business aircraft flight activity in both the United States and Europe. Further, negative reaction to declining economic activity combined with rising fuel costs may adversely affect sales numbers as well.
However, replacement of aging aircraft in business aircraft fleets combined with the strong Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc and Ruble against the dollar make U.S. manufactured business aircraft more attractive to European buyers, while Asia shows some volatility in its numbers.
Business aircraft demand is well distributed across business jet aircraft classes and expected to remain so for the next five years. Light and light medium aircraft should account for 23% of sales, while long range and ultra long range aircraft should account for 21% of aircraft sales, with the balance being in the medium and medium range aircraft.
The report was compiled from interviews with more than 1,800 corporate flight departments around the world which operate approximately 14% of the world's turbine fixed wing aircraft weighing less than 100,000 pounds.
Until next time keep your wings straight and level Hersch!
Oh, I have slipped the surly bonds of earth,
And danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings;
Sunward I've climbed, and joined the tumbling mirth
Of sun-split clouds...and done a hundred things
You have not dreamed of...wheeled and soared and swung
High in the sunlit silence. Hov'ring there,
I've chased the shouting wind along, and flung
My eager craft through footless halls of air.
Up, up, the long, delirious burning blue
I've topped the windswept heights with easy grace
Where never lark, nor even eagle flew.
And while with silent, lifting mind I've trod
The high untrespassed sanctity of space...
...put out my hand, and touched the face of God.